Crude truths and trade winds: India trails China as October’s Russian oil lifeline flows strong

Updated: November 16, 2025 17:30

Image Source: Channeliam

India ranked second behind China in importing Russian crude oil in October, spending about €2.5–$2.9 billion, per CREA estimates. Despite fresh US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, Indian refiners kept volumes steady, aided by discounts and resilient private refiner demand. The near-term outlook hinges on sanctions enforcement and freight/payment channels.

India’s October import snapshot

India remained the world’s second-largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels in October, with crude purchases estimated at roughly €2.5 billion (unchanged month-on-month), according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). China continued as the top buyer, reinforcing Asia’s pivotal role in absorbing Russian barrels.

Key highlights and takeaways

Rank and spend: India placed second globally for Russian fossil fuel purchases in October; crude import outlay was about €2.5 billion, with some estimates pegging it near $2.9 billion.

Sanctions backdrop: The new US sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil arrived late October, with Indian volumes holding steady ahead of enforcement; effects may lag as compliance tightens.

Price dynamics: Discounts on Russian crude—a structural feature since 2022—continued to make flows attractive for Indian refiners, supporting stable intake despite policy headwinds.

Refiner behavior: Reports indicate private refiners helped drive consistency, even as sanction-related risk management led some buyers to pause specific cargoes and routes.

China’s lead: China remained the top buyer of Russian fossil fuels overall, underscoring the Asia-centric demand supporting Russia’s export resilience.

Month-on-month tone: CREA data show October expenditures broadly flat versus September, suggesting short-term stability before full sanctions impact is assessed.

What this means for India’s energy calculus

India’s import strategy balances cost optimization and supply security against evolving compliance risks. Cheap Russian barrels bolster margins and inflation control, but exposure to sanctions-sensitive logistics, insurance, and payment channels could raise transaction frictions and price volatility in coming months.

What to watch

Sanctions transmission: How shipping, insurance, and banking adjustments alter delivered costs and availability for Indian refiners.

Refiner mix: Potential shifts toward Middle Eastern blends if Russian cargoes face greater friction or narrower discounts.

Policy stance: India’s continued emphasis on energy affordability and diversification to buffer against external shocks and maintain refinery utilization.

Sources: Livemint; Times of India; NewsBytes; India TV News; Outlook India

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